There are a lot of factors that go into predicting which player will score the most goals at the 2014 World Cup. First of all you have to take into account the players skill. Did they score often during the club season and will the be used in an offensive role for their national team? You also have to take into account how far their team will go because the further the team advances the more games the player has the opportunity to score goals in. For this reason it’s smarter to put your money on a player who you think will go deep in the tournament. Next you also have to consider if the players team is up against any weak opponents in the group stage that could allow them to run up the score and their goal totals. Some weaker teams could include Australia, Honduras, Costa Rica, or other Asian nations. It’s not simply which player is the best goalscorer that will win the Golden Boot. There are a lot of factors that you must take into account.
Golden Boot Winner Odds
- Lionel Messi (Argentina) 7/1
- Neymar (Brazil) 10/1
- Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal) 12/1
- Sergio Aguero (Argentina) 14/1
- Luis Suarez (Uruguay) 18/1
- Gonzalo Higuain (Argentina) 20/1
- Romelu Lukaku (Belgium) 22/1
- Fred (Brazil) 25/1
- Karim Benzema (France) 25/1
- Robin Van Persie (Netherlands) 25/1
- Thomas Muller (Germany) 25/1
- Diego Costa (Spain) 28/1
- Edinson Cavani (Uruguay) 33/1
- Hulk (Brazil) 33/1
- Mario Balotelli (Italy) 33/1
- Miroslav Klose (Germany) 33/1
- Fernando Torres (Spain) 40/1
- Jo (Brazil) 40/1
- Olivier Giroud (France) 40/1
- Wayne Rooney (England) 40/1
- Arjen Robben (Netherlands) 50/1
- Daniel Sturridge (England) 50/1
- David Villa (Spain) 50/1
- Edin Dzeko (Bosnia) 50/1
- Ezequiel Lavezzi (Argentina) 50/1
- Oscar (Brazil) 50/1
- Pedro (Spain) 50/1
- Alexis Sanchez (Chile) 66/1
Here are all of the players with 50/1 or better odds and also Alexis Sanchez from Chile at 66/1.
First of all I’m going to eliminate some players that I think would be very bad picks. Messi at 7/1 is one such pick. That’s too short of odds for a player who may not even lead his team in scoring. You see Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuain and Ezequiel Lavezzi all on this list from Argentina. This shows that the goals for Argentina are expected to be spread around. Yes, Argentina are in a weak group where they could score a lot of goals, but they aren’t all expected to come from Messi.
Cristiano Ronaldo at 12/1 is also a bad play. He has some questions regarding his fitness first of all. Add in the fact that Portugal is in a tough group with Germany, Ghana and the USA and you realize it might be difficult for Ronaldo to pile up the goals.
Suarez is the same. He is in a tough group that features both Italy and England. He may score more against Costa Rica, but he also may not even get out of his group. For 18/1 odds that’s not good enough.
I personally like Alexis Sanchez at 66/1. I think Chile is being somewhat overlooked in their group with Spain and the Netherlands. Australia has a tendency to give up a lot of goals, so he could pile them on in that game. I also think Chile could go far in this tournament, so Sanchez is a decent bet at 66/1.
Edin Dzeko of Bosnia is another decent bet at 50/1. Bosnia could easily nab second place in their group with Argentina, Iran and Nigeria and Dzeko could score plenty against Iran and Nigeria in the process. After that anything can happen, especially if Dzeko has several goals coming out of the group stage.
I like Sanchez of Chile at 66/1 and Dzeko of Bosnia-Herzegovina at 50/1 to win the golden boot this year. They are both long shots, but if they do pull it out you are in for a big pay day.