The 2017 US Open is headed to Erin Hills Country Club in Hartford, Wisconsin this weekend. The US Open is always set up as a very difficult test of golf and this week is no different. The course is extremely long and although the rain that is expected to come down in small showers throughout the tournament will make the playing conditions easier for the players it will also make the course play a little bit longer, which should increase the advantage of the big hitters. The fairways are wide at Erin Hills, but if you miss the fairways and end up in the fescue you’re in big trouble with it being nearly unplayable. The sand traps in the fairways and near the greens are also hazards that will play a big factor this week with many of the sand traps being very irregular and difficult to play out of. Overall, you need an all-around game to win at Erin Hills this week. The long hitters will have an advantage, but you still really need your approach shots to find the greens and avoid the trouble of the bunkers. The greens are in perfect condition so good putters will also be able to drain some long ones this week. Overall, it looks like it will be a great tournament and I’m very excited to see who comes out on top.
I have 3 picks for outright winner this week. As I mentioned above the course is really set up for the cream to rise to the top, so you won’t find me going with too many golfers with long odds.
I’m using the odds from Bovada.lv for my picks. Let’s get into it!
Dustin Johnson +750 @ Bovada.lv
DJ is the best player in this field. There are some question marks surrounding his form after returning from injury, especially because of his recent missed cut at the Memorial, but I’m not reading too much into this narrative. The Memorial is a very different course than Erin Hills and I think DJ’s skills line up perfectly for this course. He will be able to shorten the course and should have no trouble finding the big fairways off of the tee. This will shorten up his approach shots and coming in high he should have a good chance of sticking his shots on the green, especially if the weather causes the course to be wet. DJ is also a very underrated putter, who I think rolls it with the best in the game. If he can get birdie looks he will roll a few in and has the ability to go very low on this course.
The odds are a bit short, but I really think DJ has a great chance to win this tournament and repeat as US Open champ. He finished second two years ago at Chambers Bay and won last year. His game always seems to fit US Open courses and this year is no different.
Jon Rahm +2000 @ Bovada.lv
Rahm is a very similar player stylistically to DJ and they seem to always perform at the same tournaments. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a DJ vs Rahm battle on Sunday this week. Rahm hits the ball very far (2nd on tour behind DJ over last 12 weeks), picks up strokes on the field both off the tee (also second to DJ over past 12 weeks) and with approach shots and he’s also a guy who can roll putts in from a distance on nice greens. Rahm is a guy who is going to win several majors in his career and I could potentially see him getting his first one this week.
Ross Fisher +15000 @ Bovada.lv
My one long odds flyer this week is Ross Fisher at 150/1. Fisher has gained 1.62 strokes off the tee over his last 3 events and does hit the ball far enough to be a factor this week coming in at 37th over the past 3 tournaments in driving distance. Fisher is playing fairly well having come T22 at the Memorial and T9 at the BMW PGA Championship in his last two outings.
I really think it’s going to be either DJ or Rahm who gets the job done this week, but at these odds I don’t mind tossing a flyer on Fisher as well.
Good luck this week! It’s going to be a fun one.