The man that every MMA fan has an opinion on is back in the Octagon this Sunday, headlining an event in Boston. The Notorious Conor McGregor is taking on the German fighter, Dennis Siver, in what most people, including myself, are considering a tune-up to an eventual Featherweight Title fight against Jose Aldo.
McGregor has been on an absolute tear since coming to the UFC as a blue chip prospect in early 2013. He has won 4 straight fights in the UFC, which includes 3 first round knockouts in devastating style. The only fight he didn’t finish in the first round was a unanimous decision victory over Max Holloway, and Conor tore his ACL in that fight. Holloway has gone on to win 4 fights over some talented opponents since that bout with McGregor, which shows just how deadly McGregor had to be to beat him with a torn ACL. His next fight over Diego Brandao was way too easy, and then he most recently fought the other man who had just knocked out Brandao, Dustin Poirier. Poirier was ranked #6 at the time and McGregor made short work of him with a TKO less than 2 minutes in.
Anyone who says McGregor is a hype train and isn’t really a dangerous fighter isn’t seeing what is right in from them them. The man was a two division champion in Cage Warriors before even coming over the UFC, which shows he isn’t afraid to fight anyone.
McGregor vs Siver Odds
The odds on the fight are hugely one sided. Here are the best odds I’ve found for each fighter to win the fight straight up:
At these odds the oddsmakers are basically giving Conor a 90% chance of winning this fight. I can’t really see Conor losing, but at these odds the value isn’t there to bet it straight up, so you have to look to the props to find the better value bets.
In the first episode of Embedded (I added the video below) Conor jokes to some fans that if they want to win some money they should take him to finish Siver in round 2.
McGregor to win in round 2 has odds of +425 right now. Him in round one is actually so expected that the odds he finishes Siver in the first round is -140!
I’m personally staying away from McGregor in round 1 because Siver could just try to prolong the fight and see how McGregor reacts to getting into a longer fight. This is a 5 round fight so both fighters have the option to take the first round a bit slower than they may if it was a 3-rounder. I do see McGregor finishing this one in round 2. He said he was going to on Embedded and his predictions have actually generally came through in the past.
Here are some other options from 5Dimes.eu:
- Fight goes 5 round distance +735
- Siver wins inside distance +1058
- McGregor wins by submission +1570
- McGregor wins by knockout -540
- McGregor wins by decision +1178
I really see McGregor knocking Siver out, but at +1570 I think McGregor by submission has some pretty good odds. McGregor does only have 1 submission win in his MMA career, but Siver has been submitted several times and McGregor may take the opportunity to show off some ground game in this fight, which we haven’t had to see from him yet.
That said, I really think McGregor with the second round knockout….